Gartner: Virtual Worlds, a Long-Term Play
Original article can be found on Virtual World News
The researchers at Gartner Inc. released their 2009 Hype Cycle Special Report last week. The report, prepared by the organization since 1995, is at its core a comparative tool for risk judgment which, this year, looked at over 1,500 technologies and nearly 80 tech sectors. Among the nearly 1,800 data points mapped on the cycle's peaks and troughs is virtual worlds, an area which Gartner thinks is nearing an inflection point as a technology: virtual worlds, says Gartner, are close to owning the basement of the hype cycle, bottoming out in the dire-sounding Trough of Disillusionment.
But that won't be for long, says one of the report's authors: "Looking at real benefit, rather than the hyped expectations, we see a number of potentially transformational technologies that will hit the mainstream in less than five years, including Web 2.0, cloud computing, Internet TV, virtual worlds and service-oriented architecture," Jackie Fenn, a Gartner vice president and Fellow said. [italics added]
The report ranks technologies and sectors along a segmented cycle which quantifies in both a specific and longitudinal manner, how the technology is perceived by the public today (what Gartner calls "the landscape of technology markets") and how likely that technology will be adopted further, in years to come.
Think of it as the ultimate Hot-or-Not list for IT managers and decision-makers with the ability to green-light or block product development and product launch.
In the case of virtual worlds, the implication inherent in that sector's current placement on the cycle might discourage an enterprise from launching a virtual world -- at least right now. Why not wait a couple of years until the technology starts to ascend the Slope of Enlightenment?
Fenn and Mark Raskino, also a VP and Fellow at Gartner, are co-authors of Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Adopt the Right Innovation at the Right Time published by Harvard Business Press.
Gartner prepared the following video of Raskino summarizing the results and purpose of the report.
The researchers at Gartner Inc. released their 2009 Hype Cycle Special Report last week. The report, prepared by the organization since 1995, is at its core a comparative tool for risk judgment which, this year, looked at over 1,500 technologies and nearly 80 tech sectors. Among the nearly 1,800 data points mapped on the cycle's peaks and troughs is virtual worlds, an area which Gartner thinks is nearing an inflection point as a technology: virtual worlds, says Gartner, are close to owning the basement of the hype cycle, bottoming out in the dire-sounding Trough of Disillusionment.But that won't be for long, says one of the report's authors: "Looking at real benefit, rather than the hyped expectations, we see a number of potentially transformational technologies that will hit the mainstream in less than five years, including Web 2.0, cloud computing, Internet TV, virtual worlds and service-oriented architecture," Jackie Fenn, a Gartner vice president and Fellow said. [italics added]
The report ranks technologies and sectors along a segmented cycle which quantifies in both a specific and longitudinal manner, how the technology is perceived by the public today (what Gartner calls "the landscape of technology markets") and how likely that technology will be adopted further, in years to come.
Think of it as the ultimate Hot-or-Not list for IT managers and decision-makers with the ability to green-light or block product development and product launch.
In the case of virtual worlds, the implication inherent in that sector's current placement on the cycle might discourage an enterprise from launching a virtual world -- at least right now. Why not wait a couple of years until the technology starts to ascend the Slope of Enlightenment?
Fenn and Mark Raskino, also a VP and Fellow at Gartner, are co-authors of Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Adopt the Right Innovation at the Right Time published by Harvard Business Press.
Gartner prepared the following video of Raskino summarizing the results and purpose of the report.
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